Compilation of several news stories, primarily from FORTUNE by Jim Barton
President Donald Trump has long relied on U.S. farmers as a core part of his political base, but many soybean producers now feel increasingly betrayed as his policies and trade strategies undermine their economic standing. The recent decision by the Trump administration to extend substantial financial support to Argentina, including Treasury-led negotiations for a $20 billion swap line with the country’s central bank, has sparked particular anger among U.S. farmers. At the same time Argentina suspended export taxes, making its soybeans cheaper and more attractive to global buyers such as China, which promptly ordered multiple cargoes of Argentine soybeans. For American farmers, who are heavily dependent on China as their single largest export market, these developments have amplified both frustration and financial hardship.
Soybeans account for nearly 20% of the U.S. cash crop economy, generating $46.8 billion in 2024, and roughly a quarter of those exports typically go to China. Yet retaliatory tariffs—now reaching as high as 34%—imposed by China in response to Trump’s trade war have rendered U.S. soybeans prohibitively expensive in global markets. Even though American beans are currently cheaper than Brazil’s on paper, the added cost of tariffs makes them uncompetitive. As a result, China has shifted almost entirely to South American suppliers. By 2025, Brazil was covering 71% of China’s soybean imports, while the U.S. share slipped from 41% in 2016 to just 20% in 2024. Argentina, aided by new tax breaks, has now joined Brazil in supplying cargoes that might otherwise have been purchased from U.S. farmers.
This shift has had immediate consequences for rural America. Farmers in soybean-heavy states such as Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota are watching prices collapse as exports dry up. Since their 2022 peak, soybean prices have fallen by about 40%, leaving farmers in the middle of harvest season with dwindling profits and little recourse. While some beans can be rerouted to domestic crushing facilities for oil or ethanol, many farms are too far from such plants to make this a viable option. Instead, much of the crop is piling up in storage or being sold at steep discounts to agricultural cooperatives. For farmers already squeezed by high costs for tractors, herbicides, and pesticides—whose prices have risen by 15% to 25% under new tariffs—the losses are compounded.
The effects ripple well beyond individual farms. In many rural counties, agriculture supports 20% of employment. As farmers absorb heavy financial hits, local businesses—from equipment suppliers to diners—face declines in revenue, accelerating depopulation and economic decline in areas already struggling to retain residents. Economists warn that closures of farms and small businesses could deepen the economic distress of entire regions.
For many in the farming community, this crisis feels like a repeat of the fallout from the first Trump-era trade war. Between 2018 and 2019, U.S. agricultural exports fell by $27 billion, and soybean farmers in particular lost 20% of their market share in China—share that was never regained. At the time, the Trump administration offered a $28 billion bailout to farmers, which temporarily offset lost revenues but failed to restore their competitive footing in global markets. Producers fear that any new round of subsidies, while helpful in the short term, will once again fail to address the underlying problem: the erosion of stable export relationships and market access.
The timing of these challenges is particularly damaging. China’s soybean demand remains enormous, with import records being set through the summer of 2025. But instead of U.S. shipments, China is stocking up on supplies from Brazil and Argentina. Already, 95% of China’s October soybean needs have been covered by South American purchases, and traders estimate that the absence of Chinese buying could cost U.S. farmers 14 to 16 million tons in lost sales this marketing season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has begun revising downward its 2025/26 export forecasts, with further cuts expected if no trade resolution is reached. Meanwhile, benchmark Chicago soybean futures are hovering near five-year lows.
Farmers emphasize that what they want is not bailouts but functioning markets. Leaders in the soybean industry argue that stable trade relationships, especially with China, are essential for long-term sustainability. Without them, the U.S. risks ceding market share permanently to competitors. While some farmer organizations are exploring alternative markets in Europe or promoting new domestic uses for soy, the scale of those efforts cannot replace the central role of Chinese demand.
The Trump administration’s mix of trade wars, tariff policies, and international financial maneuvers has left U.S. soybean farmers caught in the crossfire. Once loyal supporters, many now see themselves as collateral damage in a geopolitical strategy that prioritizes leverage over livelihoods. For producers facing collapsing prices, shrinking market share, and mounting costs, the uncertainty is no longer an abstraction—it is the day-to-day reality of trying to survive in a global market that increasingly appears to be slipping away.
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